The President Trump Effect on Australian Real Estate: Bubble or Bust?

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Realestate.com.au received a 21% boost in site traffic from American IP addresses, thanks to the results of the recent Presidential Election. Sydney real estate got the most hits, closely followed by Melbourne and Adelaide. A similar surge occurred following the announcement of Brexit. But in all honesty, Trump ran a campaign notoriously riddled with lies, exaggerations and bold claims. No one is truly sure what a Trump presidency might entail, possibly not even the real estate mogul himself. According to Micheal Pascoe of the Sydney Morning Herald, we could be looking at a bursting of the East Coast real estate bubble due to increased interest rates. According to Shane Oliver, AMP’s chief economist, Australia can expect to see short term interest from Americans in more expensive properties as the Trump presidency begins. In the long term, however, Trump could fulfil his promise to cut ties with China. In the wake of a trade war between the US and Asian countries, interest in Australian homes could be affected. The surge is similar to what happened after the tragedy of 9/11. US citizen interest and inquiry levels nearly quadrupled, according to Christie’s International. In times of global uncertainty, Australian real estate does well because “a safe place to do business, it has an economy that is not as volatile as many of our neighbours and a stable government”, wrote Lucy Macken of Domain.com.au. But with the fall of interest rates, it is likely that there will be a rise in global unemployment according to The Economist. The reality is, if Trump sticks to most of his campaign promises, including cutting off global trade ties, there is a high likelihood of a global recession. And that does not bode well for anything, including the real estate market in Australia.

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